Probability of Success, Last Resort, and Proportionality

In this blog post I will look into further analysis on the final three necessary aspects of Just War Theory-Probability of Success, Last Resort, and Proportionality-before comparing these rules with the actions of Vladimir Putin in the Ukraine this past February. By looking into these and determining whether or not they apply to the annexation of Crimea, I will combine them with the other previously analyzed aspects of the theory and decide whether or not Putin's actions follow the Just War theory as a whole or not.

Pro-Ukrainian Protesters

Firstly, Probability of Success entails that there must be a high chance of winning the war before going into it to ensure that the conflict is not futile and therefore a waste of time, resources, and an unnecessary loss of life for both sides. I would say that in the case of Putin, there was a pretty high chance of success for his annexation because Russia's military is much stronger than Ukraine's and there had also been fairly high support for the process by many Ukrainian citizens, thus making it an even smoother annexation with less resistance. Putin knew that the region was a fairly easy target and therefore adhered well to the idea of probability of success.

Second, Last Resort means that war may only be explored as an option after all other peaceful choices have been exhausted and had been proven ineffective. Sometimes, peace talks and negotiations are not actually efficient means of avoiding conflict because they are just used as a way to buy time. In Putin's case, I feel that he very clearly did not use invasion as a last resort, rather he performed this action illegally and with little to no prior discussion with Ukrainian leaders on the subject. Considering these factors, it is clear to say that Putin did not obey the law of last resort.

Lastly, Proportionality brings about the idea that the benefits of declaring and waging a war must be greater than the potential downsides. It is hard to decide on this point because this can be extremely subjective. However, it is my belief that the economic benefit of a warm-water port does not outweigh the evil atrocities committed by the Russian military during the invasion in which pro-Ukrainian protesters had been "attacked, abducted, and tortured", not to mention the complete disregard for the sovereignty of the Ukrainian state.

Map of Ukraine showing its divisions and how many people list Russian as their native language